Computational Aging

The idea of extending lifespan is a controversial topic. Some believe it is unnatural. Others question if living longer while sick and unhealthy is worth it. Some wonder if the world can sustain more people. These are all important questions. Below I summarize the cases I've heard against and for this research. Then, I'll share my perspective (which you may be able to guess).

The case against research to extend human longevity

1. Isn’t this unnatural?

2. Is it worth living longer if you’re just sick and unhealthy? I don’t want to be like grandparents at the end of their life.

3. Can the world sustain more people? Are we already beyond the world’s carrying capacity?

4. Will evil dictators remain in power for too long?

5. Will society become stifled if the old don’t make room for the young?

6. What if I get bored of my life? Of my significant other?

7. Will only a select few be able to afford the longevity treatments?

8. Is it even possible? Human aging is incredibly complex. 

The case for research to extend human longevity

1. Keep family and friends healthy and alive!

2. Aging and age-related disease is the leading killer globally.

3. We are already on board with curing age-related diseases like cancer, dementia and frailty, which are extensions of aging.

4. We have already more than doubled lifespan in the last 100 years.

5. We lose so much wisdom, experience and human connection when people die.

6. Longevity interventions in model organisms and humans show increased healthspan as well as increased lifespan.

7. The healthcare savings would be enormous, given most money is spent in the last 6 months of life.

8. If someone doesn’t love life, they don’t have to take the longevity treatments.

9. Healthcare innovations typically get shared broadly over time. For example, global average life expectancy is around 70 years, including lower-income countries, vs. 75 years in the United States.

My perspective: I want my family and friends to stay healthy and alive for as long as possible. I love life and I want to keep living. I believe in technology development and global progress over the last 150 years has been on average very good for humanity in both rich and lower-income countries. I believe this will continue if we keep making amazing technologies and innovations like lifespan extension.

I believe humans can have 200+ year lifespans/healthspans. One big reason is that other species already do it.

For example, ocean quahogs live for 200+ years. Greenland sharks live for 250-500 years. Redwood trees can live for over 3,000 years. Bristlecone pines can live for 5,000 years.

Some species of rockfish live for 11 years on average. Some live for 200+ years. Why?

In fact, a study from Sudmant Lab (Science, 2021) studied 88 species of rockfish with various lifespans to identify genetic drivers of lifespan. They found that immunity and DNA repair pathways were associated with longer life. They posited that inflammation may have a major role in aging. 

Evolution has figured out long lifespan already. Let's see what we can learn.

There are a few questions I'd like to explore:

1. What is the full list of organisms that live for 100s of years?
2. How they do they do it?
3. Why did they evolve that way?
4. What can humans do to mimic this? e.g. gene editing for better DNA repair? 

References:

Kolora, et al. Origins and evolution of extreme life span in Pacific Ocean rockfishes. Science, 11 Nov 2021, Vol 374, Issue 6569, pp. 842-847. DOI: 10.1126/science.abg5332

The ultimate measure of Longevity Technology is how long people live.

One of the great successes in human history is the relatively linear growth of global life expectancy from 30 years pre-1870 to 73 years in 2019[1].

Globally, we increased life expectancy by 143% in 149 years. This is roughly an additional year of average lifespan every 3.5 years.

But that's just a global average. If you focus on specific populations, longevity technology does better. Take Japanese women, for example, with an expected life expectancy of ~89 years. That's great. Further, the top decile of Japanese women are likely expected to live close to 100 years.

Thus, our global measure of Longevity Technology is 73 years of global average life expectancy. Plus, we have pockets of early adopting populations with ~100 year median lifespans.

Are you or I likely to live to 100 years? We don't have good data or models on this (this is a gap). Lifespan is a backward-looking metric because it can take decades or even a century to know what happened.

There are relatively proven Longevity Technologies, and there are ones that are likely coming soon.

Relatively proven technologies:

• Eat a mostly plants, fruits, nuts and legumes vegan diet and avoid added sugar. There was a recent meta study suggesting this would give ~10-13 years of additional expected lifespan vs. a typical (not even a terrible) Western diet. Simply doing a mediterranean diet probably gets you most of those years. 
• Exercise 7+ hours per week. Include some resistance training to reduce muscle and bone loss. 
• Sleep 7-8 hours per night.
• Enjoy life, enjoy work, enjoy family, and have a solid social life.
• Don't smoke or use opiates. Occasional or no alcohol.
• Avoid accidents.

This on its own probably gives an expected lifespan of around 90-100. I try to do all of these, though don't always succeed. They have become part of my routine, and I don't feel like I'm making any compromises on my happiness. That said, we don't really know what doing all the "right" things get us. Once again, we need better data on this.

Technologies that may be coming soon:

• Gene editing to enhance longevity genes and remove deleterious genes. For example, a woman in New Zealand recently had a deleterious cholesterol gene edited out. There is significant, untapped opportunity here. What genes do Japanese women have that might be helpful? What genes do centenarians have that might be helpful?
• New drugs, like Rapamycin or Metformin, that promise
• New treatments for diseases like cancer, stroke, heart attack, dementia, etc.
• New centenarian treatments. The number of centenarians is growing rapidly, and we will likely pass 1 million centenarians globally shortly. This will give us the opportunity to test many new treatments for this age group to help them live longer and healthier. 
  

It's not hard to imagine in 10 or 20 years the early adopters of Longevity Technology will have an expected lifespan of 120 years. Though, it might take a few decades to really know.

References:

[1] Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Hannah Ritchie. "Life Expectancy." Our World in Data. First published in 2013; last revised in October 2019. Accessed July 22, 2022. https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy